Blair for President?

Gavin Hewitt | 12:55 UK time, Friday, 2 October 2009

Dublin: Within Europe's political corridors Tony Blair is emerging as the clear favourite to be the EU's first President.

The post is created under the Lisbon Treaty. The President will be a full-time official chosen by Europe's leaders - to chair summits and be the international face of the European Union.

If the Irish vote "Yes" to Lisbon another key milestone will be passed in ratifying the treaty. We'll know tomorrow.

Tony Blair is not a candidate, but there's a growing assumption that he's the front-runner. As one senior official put it, "he's interested in the job without campaigning for it". He has not moved to take himself out of consideration.

Working in his favour is his profile. He's far better known than any potential rivals. He was the first European politician to meet President Obama in the White House. Working
against him is his role over the 2003 invasion of Iraq and the fear amongst some officials that he's such a big beast he will drown out their influence.

Some say, however, that if his candidacy became too controversial Blair may resist his name going forward.

At the moment he seems to have the support of President Sarkozy of France. Germany's Angela Merkel is less enthusiastic but "persuadable". Berlusconi is an old friend. The new EU countries from Central and Eastern Europe are on-side. Blair had championed enlargement and their joining the EU. The northern European countries will probably raise no objection.

The main opposition comes from Socialist MEPs and to a certain extent centre-left governments like Spain. The issue for them is Iraq. Some hold Tony Blair responsible for going along with George Bush's war.

Now if the Irish vote "Yes" the pace quickens. The Swedes, who currently hold the EU presidency, are keen to move events forward, to mark their time in charge, to give an aura of inevitability that the Lisbon Treaty will be implemented. They would love to see posts like the President on the agenda for the EU summit at the end of October.

It all depends on the Czechs. They have not ratified the Lisbon Treaty and a new complaint has been filed with their constitutional court. A key calculation will be how long that process will go on for. It is even possible the EU summit could be delayed by a few weeks to allow the Czechs to sign the treaty.

In that event, Europe's leaders will vote on who will be the first President of the European Council. If it is Tony Blair then there is the intriguing possibility of a former Labour leader as President of the European Union with potentially a Conservative prime minister in Downing Street.

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Oh G-d that photo of Blair is hilarious.

this is the best

YES

We as Turks should support Anglo-Saxon and Turkish relations to prosper.

Well, I wouldn't do that. Good relations with the British will not save you from the eventual backstab. The British, of all nations, are the perfect exemplification of the maxim that nations have interests, not friends.

The UK does have a pretty terrible track record. They certainly deserve to sit on the UN security council with Russia, China and the US, because they share our undiluted evil.

I am constantly wondering whether your posts are sarcastic or not.

Sarcasm-free version: Fuck the UN security council.

Indeed.

Turkey in its size good enough to make amends.

We need clear stragety, clear initiative and clear INTERNATIONAL DIPLOMACY.

EU capitals have begun a high stakes game for the new power jobs (Photo: Flickr.com


Blair under attack in bid for EU top job

VALENTINA POP

Today @ 10:06 CET

EUOBSERVER / BRUSSELS - Eurogroup chief Jean Claude Juncker and the British Conservative party have attacked Tony Blair's bid to become the first EU president, as member states start horse-trading for the EU's top jobs after Ireland's Lisbon Treaty vote.

Irish Prime Minister Brian Cowen on Sunday (4 October) openly backed former British premier Mr Blair to take up the prestigious post once the treaty comes into force. "I've certainly the highest regard for Tony Blair and obviously we await and see if, in fact, he's a candidate, but you can take it that we'd be very supportive yes," he said.

Mr Cowen is the first EU leader to make a public statement on the issue. But Mr Blair is also said to have the support of French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

The British Conservatives over the weekend launched a counter-offensive, however, with Luxembourg premier Jean-Claude Juncker, himself once floated as a potential candidate, also sticking in the knife.

William Hague, the Conservative shadow foreign secretary, told The Times that he was lobbying in Paris and Berlin against Mr Blair, whose appointment would trigger an anti-EU backlash in the UK ahead of a potential Tory-orchetsrated referendum on Lisbon.

"There could be no worse way to sell the EU to the people of Britain," he said.

A front page story in the mass-selling tabloid, The Sun, on Monday said Mr Blair would earn €4 million plus perks in an article which seemed designed to further damage his bid.

Jean Claude Juncker, the Prime Minister of Luxembourg and the head of the Eurogroup, the 16 EU states which use the euro, also came out against the former British leader.

The interests of small EU states would be threatened if the the first EU president came from a "big member state," he told Financial Times Deutschland.

The first EU president should have strong pro-EU credentials, so that it wouldn't be "a surprise" if he was himself appointed as "Europe's first voice," Mr Juncker added, alluding to the fact Mr Blair did little to bring the UK closer to Europe on issues such as the single currency.

Snubbed by Mr Sarkozy for having allegedly done too little during the financial crisis, Mr Juncker's own bid for the EU top job is unlikely to fly, however.

Even within Conservative circles, there is a feeling that Mr Blair is "too big to fail" and that he would not have let his name have go forward unless he had assurances to secure the post.

Meanwhile, another potential candidate for the president post, Dutch Prime Minister Jan Peter Balkenende, is out of the running after Dutch European minister Frans Timmermans said on Sunday The Hague will not put forward a nominee.

Foreign minister

Meanwhile, French foreign minister Bernard Kouchner has signalled he would be interested in another plum job to be created under the Lisbon Treaty: the post of EU "foreign minister" and European Commission vice president.

The Elysee itself is not giving Mr Kouchner a clear run at the post, with French EU affairs minister Pierre Lellouche over the weekend floating two other names, Hubert Vedrine and Michel Barnier.

Mr Vedrine was foreign minister under President Francois Mitterand and a staunch opponent of the war in Iraq. Mr Barnier is a former EU commissioner and now an MEP.

Germany is also eyeing the foreign minister job for its current interior minister, Wolfgang Schauble, according to The Times. The German press says he is unwilling to leave the country however, with German centre-right MEP Elmar Brok is aiming at a high-level EU commission portfolio instead.

Germany's outgoing foreign minister, Frank Walter Steinmeier, is unlikely to go forward because he is damaged goods after a severe election defeat and because he is seen as too pro-Russian by former Communist EU states.

Swedish foreign minister Carl Bildt is seen as too anti-Russian and too young by some EU officials, while Paris and Berlin have some reserves about his pro-Turkey Stance. Moreover, a Danish appointment as head of Nato has already used up the Nordic countries' quota of top appointments.

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Forza Italia's former leader has backed 'Forza Blair' (Photo: Dorata Gold)


Berlusconi says: 'Vote Tony' for EU president

LEIGH PHILLIPS

Today @ 17:23 CET

EUOBSERVER / BRUSSELS - Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi on Wednesday (14 October) came out in favour of "Forza Blair" as president of the European Council.

"Tony Blair has all the credentials to become the first president of the European Council," Mr Berlusconi wrote in a letter that appeared in Il Foglio, a conservative daily.

The Italian leader was responding to an editorial entitled "Vote Tony, vote Tony!" in the paper that had appeared on Monday.

"Dear editor, I absolutely agreed with your idea, even before you could think of it," the prime minister wrote.

He added that the former British prime minister should be "appointed to that post as soon as legally and politically possible."

On Tuesday, the newspaper known for its Fox-news style neo-conservatism, said that Mr Blair's candidacy was an opportunity both for Europe and for "Il Cavaliere."

"If Silvio Berlusconi, after the furious and embarrassing controversies of recent months, wanted to revive the activities of his government's international profile and give its political agenda a boost, he should exploit a tremendous opportunity: to fight for the nomination of former British prime minister Tony Blair as president of the European Council," the paper wrote.

Europe had hope for a future, the article continued, "only if a figure of great international calibre, able to warm hearts, to be respected outside Europe and perhaps even feared, but also able to identify the institutions with his leadership, is chosen."

The paper said it could also ease tensions with the Italian centre-left opposition, as Mr Blair comes from their political family.

If the Italian leader is hoping to win over resistance to Mr Blair's coronation, he chose an unusual forum. Il Foglio is most known for its robust support of the Iraq war.

It has often been said, even by his supporters, that if Mr Blair does not win the post, one of the biggest reasons will be the former prime minister's backing of the invasion of Iraq.

The paper also cheered Mr Blair's conversion to Roman Catholicism and signed off the editorial: "Forza Blair!" echoing the name of Mr Berlusconi's former party.

Mr Berlusconi's backing strengthens Mr Blair's chances, although it reinforces the perception that the battle over the ex-UK leader could shape up to be one between large and small EU states.

The Benelux countries a week ago released a proposal for the position of European Council president and high representative for foreign affairs - essentially a foreign minister for the EU.

The document has been widely interpreted as an anti-Blair move, as their job description of the office of president is closer to a paper-shuffler than a statesman. A Belgian diplomat was also quoted in Le Monde as saying that the anti-Blair interpretation is correct, although it is thought that the Netherlands is taking a softer line.

Poland is expected to be releasing its own perspective on what sort of president Europe should have. Early signs suggest Warsaw's thinking is in line with Belgium and Luxembourg, with Poland's EU affairs minister Mikolaj Dowgielewicz recently saying the new appointee should not be a "celebrity" but should focus on consensus-building instead.

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Thank G-d. Italy's favourite fascist (who apparently has spent millions of euros bribing judges by his own admission) endorses the European leader of this century who went the most out of his way to bomb the shit out of Arabs. Nice.

If cavaliere says it then

worst promotion for blair